JUST HOW SAFE IS ISRAEL RIGHT NOW?
George Friedman writes on Israel’s possibility for peace and stability in his GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES’ article of February 25, 2016. Friedman believes that Israel is in a much stronger and safer position than it has previously enjoyed, with Syria neutralized, Hezbollah weakened in Lebanon due to its involvement in Syria, and favorable relations with Jordan and Egypt. ISIS remains a big unknown, but thanks to Russia, the IS threat has dramatically diminished.
Iran still hates Israel (the feeling is mutual I’m sure), but Iran (Shia) also has to deal with Turkey (Sunni). Iran isn’t capable of taking on Turkey and NATO would support Turkey if it tried. Friedman believes the long-term picture is Israel strengthening itself (no longer requiring so much support from the United States) and the possibility that for the immediate future, Turkey does not want to engage Israel in any sort of confrontation. Thus, there is a Pax Israel of sorts (my awkward term, not his) that exists and may for a decade… but it is nonetheless tenuous and vulnerable.
Islamic Antichrist theorists should be jubilant that Friedman is so bullish on Turkey and his prediction that Erdogan will grow into a dominant Middle East power outpacing Iran. Turkey will eventually become a threat to Israel once the Syrian and ISIS situation is settled… in Turkey’s favor (i.e., the Sunni’s win). Of course, this assumes that Russia is only half-serious about working with Iran and continuing to fight for Syria. Facts on the ground suggest that Russia’s foray into Syria has been THE KEY to a radical reset of the whole civil war. The rebels are on the verge of defeat and Assad (and his regime) riding into the sunset sitting high on his horse. That’s why Saudi Arabia and Turkey are conducting war games on the Syrian and Iraqi border.
Indeed, what Friedman tends to ignore is Russian resolve. He assumes that Russia does not have sufficient economic strength to endure for the longer term and will thus reduce its ability to influence the Middle East. It is my view, informed from a prophetic perspective, that Friedman underrates Putin’s nationalist drive and the fact that Putin may only be able to survive by conducting military campaigns that promise to improve Russia’s economic position. Gog is hooked and will be drawn into the Middle East conflict. And remember, if there is one predictable thing about the Middle East, it is that it is totally unpredictable. An unforeseen game changer could happen at any moment.
Click here to read Friedman’s article: Israel’s Strategic Vulnerability | Geopolitical Futures
The strength of Israel’s position in the Middle East has been the subject of a recent spate of articles. That strength is clear, for the moment. The question,…